More Lei, Same Basket: What a Record Black Friday Means for the Shelf
Black Friday 2026 is set to break a record. In lei, at least.
Frames, the economic think tank, expects Romanians to spend between RON 2.8 and 2.9 billion over the campaign, a nominal record and 7 to 10% more than last year. Most of that growth comes from higher prices, according to the analysis reported by Revista Biz. The number of products going home is expected to stay close to last year's level, or lower, while the average order is expected to rise to RON 450 to 500.
A bigger total, in roughly the same basket. For brands, that detail matters more than the headline.
A Record in Value, Built on Careful Budgets
The shopper behind this record is cautious. Annual inflation reached 6.6% in September, up from 6.2% in August, according to the National Institute of Statistics. Consumption fell by 5% in the first eight months of 2026, per Frames.
That context changes how the record reads. Set against inflation of 6.6%, a 7 to 10% rise in value leaves little room for real growth: by our own arithmetic, somewhere between flat and roughly 3% once prices are taken out. The money moving through the campaign is growing. The volume of products moving through it is not expected to.
And still, more people plan to buy. An MKOR survey of 1,000 Romanians aged 18 to 55, also reported by Revista Biz, found that 70% intend to shop the campaign, up from 62% last year and 57% in 2023 and 2024. The average declared budget is around RON 2,100.
Of those surveyed, 86% set it in advance, and half built it around the money they have available.
A second survey paints a more modest picture. In Shopfully's October study, nearly half of respondents estimate their Black Friday budget at about RON 1,000, 29% have no fixed budget and 10% do not want to spend anything. The two surveys cover different groups, which explains the gap between them.
A budget decided in advance, meeting prices that keep rising. The result is a shopper who plans carefully and then chooses carefully.
Two Events, Two Channels
Black Friday itself leans online. In the MKOR survey, 60% of those planning to buy will shop exclusively online, up from 47% last year, and only 8% will buy solely in physical stores. The parcel networks are preparing for it: SAMEDAY expects nearly 10 million parcels during the Black Friday period, 16% more than last year.
Christmas looks different. In the Shopfully survey, 60% of Romanians prefer physical stores for their Christmas shopping, 28% mix online and offline and 11% shop only online. Black Friday also marks the start of the season for many: 42% plan to begin their
Christmas shopping on that day, and 18% start already in October.
These two surveys ask different questions of different groups, so their numbers should not be added together. Read side by side, they suggest a pattern. The November discount weekend is busiest online, and the weeks that follow bring much of the volume back to the shelf.
The calendar is stretching as well. The Altex Group opened its Black Friday campaign on 29 October and runs it for three weeks in three stages. Shopfully's country manager describes how, for some shoppers, Black Friday and Christmas form a single shopping period. A season that long cannot be checked once and left alone.
What Romanians Plan to Buy
Intent by category shows where the money is likely to go. In the MKOR survey, electrical appliances and electronics lead with 51%, followed by IT products at 37%, clothing and accessories at 30% and cosmetics at 27%.
Shopfully's list combines Black Friday offers and Christmas gifts, and it looks broader.
Clothing, footwear and accessories and home goods, decorations and furniture are each cited by 35%, food and beverages by 31%, children's toys by 22% and new electronics by 20%.
This is our reading of the two lists, and neither survey states it directly. Electronics lead the discount weekend. Food and beverages, gifts and home decoration sit closer to the Christmas weeks, when many shoppers are back on the shop floor. For fast-moving consumer goods, the busiest in-store window may start after Black Friday ends.
What a Same-Size Basket Does to the Shelf
When the number of products in the basket stays flat, the total grows only if each item costs more. Every category then competes for the same slots in a basket that was planned and priced in advance. The shopper has fewer chances to choose any one product, so each in-store detail carries more weight for the brand.
Shoppers who plan ahead also look ahead. In the Shopfully survey, 41% use digital catalogs or online brochures to discover offers, 29% use printed catalogs and 27% look for inspiration in store. Technology joins the process too: 35% are considering AI when researching purchases, while another 35% prefer to avoid AI tools.
By the time a shopper reaches the shelf, the decision is often half made. The shelf either confirms it or undoes it. The promotion they saw before leaving home has to be waiting for them there.
Where the Basket Gets Won
When volumes are tight and budgets are fixed, a few details decide which products end up in the basket.
The shelf price matches the campaign. A promotional price that is live in the system but missing from the shelf is invisible to a shopper working with a fixed budget. Price Pulse monitoring shows what the shopper actually sees, store by store.
The promotion runs for its whole window. The mechanic, the materials and the dates need to match the plan from the first day to the last. PromoPlan Compliance checks this in the field, including the final week of a campaign, when attention has already moved on.
Secondary placements go up before the weekend. Endcaps, promotional islands and cross-category placements create the unplanned choices that even a planned basket leaves room for. Secondary Placement Analytics and POSM Audits confirm that they are live, set up correctly and easy to see.
Availability holds into the Christmas weeks. A product that sells out on Black Friday is missing for the shopper who arrives two weeks later with a gift list. Store 360 audits show what is on the shelf week after week, in the stores and regions where it matters.
What to Verify, and When
A campaign this long needs more than one checkpoint.
Before 6 November. Shelf prices, promotion mechanics and in-store materials should match the campaign plan, and secondary placements should be built and visible before the first wave of traffic.
Between the two Black Fridays. Promotions should still display correctly, placements should be where they were put, and fast sellers should be restocked before the international Black Friday on 27 November.
From December. Displays move toward gifting and the festive table, and availability of the products Christmas shoppers look for becomes the main question.
Each checkpoint answers the same question from a different angle: is the store showing the shopper what the plan promised?
The Point
Black Friday will be reported as a record, and in lei it will be one. For a brand, the number that matters sits one level down: how many of its products land in a basket that is the same size as last year's.
That is decided in the last few meters, at the shelf, in a store that either matches the plan or does not. Brands that know their gaps this week can still close them before the Christmas shopper arrives.
Want to see how your Black Friday and Christmas campaigns are landing in stores, region by region and format by format? Let's talk!
